If you produce thermofoil components, be prepared for a customer shift in 2010.

If you manufacturer or use 3D Laminate, thermofoil doors and drawers you should prepare yourself for a customer shift in 2010, 2011. In this article I will give market conditions and observations that I believe will convince you of a coming shift in thermofoil component buyers. As the market slowly rebounds, its my belief that you will find many customers WILL NOT come back because they will start buying imported KD cabinets. Many larger Kitchen company lines who service KB Dealers, however, will increasingly use 3D Laminate thermofoils due to the quality control and ability to be made in North America by automated machinery.

If your company has been producing thermofoil components since the late 90s or early 00s, your entire company is structured around the market as it was. The router profiles you stock, colors in your warehouse, pricing and customers you send samples to are all a result of what you believe to be connected to your target market. Certainly most of your feedback probably comes from your customers, but you should ask if they are still your ideal target customers? Is your target market shifting? Its my belief that the market "as we knew it" will not return to thermofoil in the same manner. Not only is the market smaller, but the people seeking out these components are often new people and new companies. Do you think its possible that these new people may be of a different demographic in terms of their market view, their wishes and wants when it comes to colors and profiles? Lets examine...

In Europe, most of us are aware that thermofoil has been utilized in over 50% of the Kitchens in prior years whereas we've never topped 8% of the Kitchens here. The primary reason is due to the shortage of low cost wood, however the second reason is that the larger Kitchen producers adopted thermofoil as a viable way to market kitchens via KB Dealers. Consumers trust larger manufacturers due to their warranties, elaborate brochures and higher quality of dealers.

In North America, however, thermofoil has traditionally been used primarily for lower end cabinets. As a result, the major cabinet companies have primarily only used white thermofoil due to its superior consistency to a white painted door. The vast majority of users of the woodgrain thermofoils have been buying a raised panel door that is been marketed as a counterfeit wood door.

In addition to the US building market shrinking there has been a rise in imported "Knock down" cabinets coming from Asia. Although the US Cabinet market has decreased by a reported $3 billion in sales, the imports from Asia have increased by over $250 million in wooden cabinets in the last 2 years. Does this signal anything for you? Do some research on the American Furniture industry that evaporated in the 90s.

Many of the past sellers of value based cabinets have concluded that when the building market does rebound that they can buy from a cabinet importer and resell cheaper than they can construct a cabinet box and buy thermofoil doors. In addition, they can give the illusion of more quality since their new cabinet will be solid wood. In reality, most of these imported cabinets have been failing due to the expansion and contraction of the wood doors revealing the unstained center panel edges. In addition, most importers or distributors of these cabinets lack the capital to stock enough SKUs to complete many of the projects they undertake. As a result of these two reasons, the market perception of a value based wooden cabinet will decrease and the market perception of an American made thermofoil Kitchen will increase.

Another interesting thing is that KB Dealers are faced by a decline in cabinet sales as a whole. KB Dealers are also facing increased competition from the importers of value based Kitchens. Imagine being a small KB Dealer selling an American made particle board cabinet with maple door for $20K installed whereas a flooring shop is selling a solid wood box with Cherry door for less than half. This is not every case, for every area or every dealer but it is a scenario that is playing out as we speak across North America.

Daily, I see more and more KB Dealers as well as American Kitchen manufacturers promoting a Euro style cabinet with high end thermofoil. These higher end cabinet shops and KB Dealers are finding that the sophisticated consumer willing to purchase a $20K plus Kitchen does value Euro styling in many cases, but in most cases aren't too keen on buying a $8K Kitchen from a tile shop for example.

In conclusion, I do recognize that there will continue to be need for custom solid white and custom raised panel woodgrain thermofoil doors from the value based door buyers, but please do shoot for the the higher end cabinet factories that sell cabinets via KB Dealers. You may be surprised....

Do you see the subtle shift that I do? If so, drop me a quick email mark@dackor.com

Best wishes in 2010..... Mark